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当前二手车市场状况:2024年第一季度

2024年4月16日
4 分钟阅读

2024年2月/ 3月Kontos评论

The following commentary is produced by Tom Kontos, Chief Economist, ADESA Auctions.  

批发市场的春天似乎已经来临, as average prices jumped another four percent month-over-month in February and have continued to rise significantly in March. 2月份二手车零售和CPO销售也出现增长.

批发市场趋势*

According to ADESA US Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of auction industry used vehicle prices by vehicle model class, 2月份的批发价格平均为14美元,312—up 4.与1月份相比，下降了9%.与2023年2月相比增长了8%，增长了31%.与大流行前/ 2019年2月相比，增幅为5%，如下图所示.

批发市场趋势

所有车型类别都显示出逐月增长. Average prices have continued to rise so far in March and stood at $14,到3月17日为止的一周是536.

Further insights on wholesale price trends can be gained by holding constant for auction 销售类型, 车型年龄和里程(下图中上线), 代表“最新型号”单元), 以及价格趋势 所有 售出车辆(下图中较低的线).

批发市场趋势

如图所示, average prices for “Late-Model” used vehicles as defined here have risen faster than over所有 prices so far this year. Average prices for these late-model vehicles have continued to rise in March and stood at $25,到3月17日为止的一周是348. 价格的快速上涨表明了消费者的兴趣, 因此经销商, 用更实惠的替代品代替高价新车.

A 电子表格 with historical data broken out by model class for the table and graph in this section has been provided with this report for your convenience in tracking these trends.

零售市场趋势

The following graph and table summarize ADESA US Analytical Services’ analysis of NADA and Motor Intelligence data, 分别, on retail used vehicle and certified pre-owned (CPO) sales in February.

批发市场趋势

批发市场趋势

如图所示, over所有 retail used vehicle sales are off to a slower start than any of the previous five years, 尽管2月份同比略有增长. On the other hand, year-to-date CPO sales are up even when compared to pre-pandemic levels. This is once again indicative of consumer interest in more-affordable substitutes to expensive new vehicles.

#潮流

Recently, a lot of ink has been spilled not only on EVs, but increasingly on Hybrid vehicles. 我认为这是及时的, 因此, to share a couple of graphs I’ve developed to monitor auction price and volume trends for these alternative fuel vehicle types. The first graph shows that both these vehicle types still represent a sm所有 percentage of total auction sales, 但这一比例正在增长. These volume trends tend to lag new-vehicle sales trends by a few years, so it will be interesting to see how these patterns may change over time.

批发市场趋势

The second graph shows average auction prices for the two vehicle types, along with the same total auction average prices shown earlier in this report. The EV line displays the same general return towards market price trends that I described for the Tesla Model 3 in my 12月和1月康托斯评论 #潮流. 混合动力汽车平均价格, 然而, 从低于市场到高于市场, 虽然这可能部分是由于模型组合的变化.

批发市场趋势

今后我将继续监测这些趋势. 我希望你发现这些信息有用，我欢迎你的反馈.

*来源: Analysis in this section is based on over six million annual sales transactions from over 250 of the largest U.S. wholesale auto auctions, including those of ADESA US as well as other auction companies. ADESA US Analytical Services segregates these transactions to study trends by vehicle model class, 销售类型, mode-year, 等.
免责声明: The views and analysis provided herein relate to the vehicle remarketing industry as a whole and may not relate directly to ADESA US. 这些观点和分析不是ADESA US的观点, 其管理, its subsidiaries or its parent companies; and their accuracy is not warranted.
前瞻性陈述: 本报告所载的陈述和ADESA美国的陈述, 其管理, its subsidiaries or its parent companies may make or所有y in connection with this report that are not historical facts (including, 但不限于, 预期, 估计, assumptions and projections regarding the industry and business) may be forward-looking statements. 像“可能”这样的词,”“应该,”“可能,”“会,”“预计,”“预计,”“计划,”“计划,”“相信,”“寻求,”“估计,”“承诺,“很可能”,”“前景,”“潜在,” “project” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materi所有y from the results projected, 由前瞻性陈述表达或暗示. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include those matters disclosed in the “Risk Factors” identified in Carvana Co.美国证券交易委员会(sec)的备案文件. Neither ADESA US nor its subsidiaries or parent companies undertakes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.